Average FICO Scores Dropping – the Affect on Mortgage Rates?

August 22nd, 2010

A recent Fair Isaac Company news release shows that U.S. credit scores have dropped since 2008 in synch with the economy.

High unemployment, a sinking economy and a Housing Crisis, take your pick as to why credit scores are dropping.

Consumers have defaulted on mortgages in record numbers and mortgage late payments carry a lot of weight on credit scores.  They’ve done the same on credit cards, although recent statistics indicate that problem is slowing.

So, is anyone really surprised by the Fair Isaac news release that credit scores are dropping?

The chart below is right from Fair Isaac:

Notice that the percentage of consumers in almost every FICO score range in the above chart has worsened since 2008.  Not by a lot, but they are worsening.

Keep in mind, that most mortgage lenders won’t accept middle FICO scores below 620.  So, the increase in FICO scores below 600 is not good news.

There are a two interesting trends on the chart:

- the percentage of FICO scores between 750-799 have actually increased in 2010 after dropping in 2009.  While this may seem like good news at first, that increase probably came from those dropping from the higher tier, which is a negative.

- the other interesting development is the percentage of FICO scores in the tier from 300-499.  It increased in 2009, but saw a pretty substantial decrease in 2010.  So, the number of people with the worst credit is dropping, which is good news.  You would think it actually be getting worse in our economic recession.  But look closer and you’ll see that the tier has always had the smallest percentage of consumers.  It actually takes a lot of negative reporting to get a FICO score under 500.  This is probably more a sign that the number of consumers now using cash instead of credit is increasing.  I’d also like to see Fair Isaac’s numbers/percentages on those that don’t have enough credit to generate a FICO score.  I’d bet they’re going up.

Again, keep in mind when looking at this chart that consumers are shifting from one tier to the next.  So, the 650-699 tier staying relatively stable, probably doesn’t mean much.  There are probably as many consumers dropping into it as there are dropping out of it.

The good news to take away from all this is best represented with the bar graph below:

If you add up the percentages you’ll find that in 2010, even after all the recent economic hardships, over 53% of American consumers have a FICO score above 700.


FICO Scores & Mortgage Rates

Fair Isaac didn’t cover this in their news release, but since this is a mortgage blog, we’ll cover it.

In 2008 FNMA/FHLMC started charging more to mortgage borrowers with FICO scores under 720.  They use what’s called, Loan Level Price Adjustments (or LLPA) to determine how much more to charge.

You can reference the previous link for all the detailed charges, but here’s the basic matrix:

*NOTE – the above price adjustments are in discount points, not interest rate points.

As you can see from the chart, if your middle FICO score is under 720 you’re going to pay more to get the going mortgage rate (unless you borrow less than 60% of a property’s value).

I’d like to see Fair Isaac break their tiers down to correspond with FNMA’s matrix above.  That would give us better data to see how the trend in FICO scores is affecting borrower costs.

What we can glean from their existing data is that in 2008 45.7% of consumers had a FICO score below 700.  In 2010 that number increased to 46.9%.

That means that an additional 1.2% of consumers paid either a higher interest rate or had higher closing costs in 2010 because of their FICO scores.

Do you think that’s going to get worse of better in 2011?


Michigan, Mortgage, Expert, Birmingham, Bloomfield, Detroit, Rochester, Royal Oak, Troy

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Homebuyer Tax Credit – Closings to be Extended until September 30th

July 10th, 2010

Well Congress finally got their act together on something.

Both the House & Senate approved a bill to allow homebuyers with purchase contracts dated by April 30, 2010 to close on their transactions until September 30, 2010.  The bill is now on its way to President Obama to be signed into law.

Why the extra time?

According to the National Association of Realtors, approximately 180,000 homebuyers would lose out on the credit as they can’t close by the current June 30th deadline.

NAR blames backed up lenders, delays in Flood Insurance and the Rural Development programs and new construction issues as the primary reasons homebuyers can’t close.

Here’s NAR’s 180,000 list broken down by state:

Alabama, 2,590; Alaska, 830; Arizona, 5,440; Arkansas, 2,090; California, 17,700; Colorado, 3,390; Connecticut, 1,770; Delaware, 400; District of Columbia, 300; Florida, 14,830; Georgia, 6,270; Hawaii, 710; Idaho, 1,270; Illinois, 7,030; Indiana, 3,560; Iowa, 2, 030; Kansas, 1,840; Kentucky, 2,540; Louisiana,1,800; Maine, 840; Maryland, 2,630; Massachusetts, 3,930; Michigan, 6,470; Minnesota, 3,760; Mississippi, 1,530; Missouri, 3,600; Montana, 760; Nebraska, 1,110; Nevada, 3,800; New Hampshire, 690; New Jersey, 4,300; New Mexico, 1,160; New York, 9,190; North Carolina, 4,890; North Dakota, 460; Ohio, 8,510; Oklahoma, 2,760; Oregon, 2,090; Pennsylvania, 5,830; Rhode Island, 500; South Carolina, 2,460; South Dakota, 500; Tennessee, 3,910; Texas, 15,340; Utah, 1,130; Vermont, 400; Virginia, 3,890; Washington, 3,190; West Virginia, 940; Wisconsin, 2,690; and Wyoming, 390.

What about all the buyers that have contracts on short sales? 

Short sale can easily take 4 months or longer to close.  So, if a homebuyer entered into a purchase contract in April, there’s a very low chance they would be able to close by the current June 30th deadline. 

A good portion of short sales will be lucky to be able to close by the soon-to-be extended deadline of September 30th.

Now if only Congress could get its act together on the Flood Insurance issue…

MORTGAGE, EXPERT, MICHIGAN, BIRMINGHAM, BLOOMFIELD, DETROIT, ROCHESTER, ROYAL OAK, TROY

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Drew Sygit: CMPS, CMC, CRMS, CMLO, CALO, MBA, NAMB/MAMP Instructor & Speaker
The most Certified Mortgage Expert in the Midwest

Contact him for The Lending Edge
P: 248-356-3739 • F: 866-215-3755 • dsygit@TheLendingEdge.comwww.TheLendingEdge.com

FNMA Pushing Lenders to Pull New Credit Reports Right before Closings!

June 20th, 2010

The lending world just keeps getting tougher.

As of June 1, 2010 FNMA guidelines now require lenders to pull a new credit report right before closing a loan in addition to the credit report pulled at application.

This new required practice will take some time for homebuyers and industry professionals to get used to.  Unfortunately, it’ll become more common for purchase transactions to fall apart at the last minute.

How?

Let’s say a homebuyer barely has the credit score required to qualify for their mortgage.  They get pre-approved for a conforming mortgage, find a home they like, sign a purchae contract and apply for their mortgage.  So far, so good.  Then, sometime during the approval process, they innocently charge a tank of gas for their car on a credit card.  That small transaction could drop their credit score enough to kill their deal.

Or a homebuyer could go out and open a new account at Best Buy and purchase their new appliances ahead of time.  The additional credit payments could exceed the debt tolerance they were initially approved for and again kill their transacation at the last minute.

The least controllable situation – the new credit report pulled before closing discloses something a homebuyer did BEFORE they even applied for their mortgage.  It’s easy to forget that information can take up to 90 days to appear on a credit report.  So, an innocent credit transaction leading to an increased balance could pop up  and kill a transaction.

So homebuyers need to be VERY prudent about what they do with their credit when buying a home.  Here are some tips:

  • Turn in all your credit card statements from the last 90 days when applying for a mortgage.
  • Review your credit report with your Loan Officer and compare what’s reported to what’s on your credit card statements.
  • Consider paying down account balances where there’s a discrepency.
  • Disclose any recent new credit accounts opened or large charges.
  • If you’re credit is borderline, consider an FHA mortgage (which isn’t requiring the additional credit pull yet)
  • Be very careful with the use of credit accounts before the closing of your home purchase.

Real estate agents also need to be more aware of this new requrement and start educating homebuyers about it as soon as they start showing them homes.  There will definitely be transactions affected, but throwing a temper tantrum and making the problem 100% the lender’s fault will not solve anything.  Be professional and part of the solution, not part of the problem!

I do not wish that ugly situation on anyone and I’m dreading when it occurs on one of my transactions.

A more in depth explanation of the new requirement


It’s important to note that FNMA hasn’t come out and required lenders to pull new credit reports right before closing.  What they’ve done is introduce a new requirement called, “Loan Quality Initiative” (LQI) and that is forcing lenders to take this action to meet the LQI requirements.  

Here’s the language from FNMA leading to lenders pulling new credit reports right before closings:

Lender must determine that borrower liabilities incurred up to, and concurrent with, closing are disclosed and evaluated in qualifying the borrower for the loan. 

Why is FNMA doing this?  Well here’s as excerpt from FNMA’s announcement 2010-03 about LQI released February 26th that supposedly explains why: 

Historically, many issues related to compliance with Fannie Mae selling policies are not detected until after loans are delinquent or through the foreclosure process. Loan repurchase requests to lenders have increased in the past three years, highlighting the need for an improved approach for working with lenders to deliver loans that meet Fannie Mae’s underwriting and eligibility guidelines. Fannie Mae conducted an extensive analysis to determine the primary drivers of repurchase requests and is launching the Loan Quality Initiative (LQI) to identify and implement policy, process, and technology enhancements to improve the compliance with underwriting and eligibility guidelines and mitigate repurchase risk. 

Working with its lender partners, Fannie Mae is implementing the LQI enhancements to promote improved loan delivery data that is complete, accurate, and fully reflective of the terms of the mortgage. The LQI will also help ensure that the loan meets the credit and eligibility standards, pricing guidelines, and other requirements of the Selling Guide or negotiated variances. A primary focus is on capturing critical loan data earlier in the process and validating it before, during, and immediately after loan delivery. 

This updated approach is designed to stand the test of time across market cycles and risk tolerances, thus supporting market stability and reducing investor and lender risk. Changes introduced under the LQI are intended to reduce repurchase requests through improved data integrity and consistent and early feedback on policy compliance while maintaining the current business model of relying on lenders to make appropriate decisions in accordance with Fannie Mae’s guidelines.

The announcement actually covers a lot more items than just pulling new credit before closings. 

Lenders now also have to:

  • Confirm the identity of all borrowers
  • Verify all borrowers have a valid social security number
  • Verify a borrower intends to owner occupy a property
  • Validate all parties to a transaction and make sure they’re not on any government exclusion lists
  • Reporting & validation of mortgage insurance coverage
  • Credit scores must be 620 or higher (with some exceptions)
  • ..and more.

FNMA’s vagueness about LQI caused such an uproar in the industry that they had to release a clarification statement March 29th.

Oh but wait, it get’s better!  Because their bureaucratic mumbo jumbo is so clear, FNMA had to publish additional clarifying statements on April 7th and again on June 7th

FNMA has also created an index page on their website to assist lenders with understanding what they’re after.

Is it any wonder why it’s seems so difficult to get approved for a mortgage these days? 

MORTGAGE, EXPERT, MICHIGAN, BIRMINGHAM, BLOOMFIELD, DETROIT, ROCHESTER, ROYAL OAK, TROY 

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Drew Sygit: CMPS, CMC, CRMS, CMLO, CALO, MBA, NAMB/MAMP Instructor & Speaker
The most Certified Mortgage Expert in the Midwest

Contact him for The Lending Edge
P: 248-356-3739 • F: 866-215-3755 • dsygit@TheLendingEdge.comwww.TheLendingEdge.com